While doing some general browsing on FlightRadar24 we came across some flight going from Taipei to Shanghai. These flights were taking a rather unusual route which was way off the most direct one. This short investigation will look at the reasons why the planes took such unusual route.
Initial Findings
Flight paths from 09/05/2023 shown below. On the left is a route from Taipei to Shanghai and on the right is a route from Taipei to Qingdao.
We also looked at flights coming from different directions to and from Taipei and found that any routes that were North / North West, planes would also take this path.
As you can see the routes look odd, with the most direct route being avoided. This prompted us to dig a bit deeper into the anomaly and find out how far back this route was being used and why.
Our next step was to do some general searching about Taipei flight paths. An article from 2015 states mainland China and Taiwan were not able to agree on transfer rights for Taiwanese carriers. Both, Chinese and Taiwanese, airlines must use this route in and out of Taipei. This was the first indication of why planes have been taking this strange route.
To see if the flight paths had been captured else where on the internet; we ran the screenshots through reverse image search platforms, such as TinEye and Google images. These searches did not bring any additional information.
No Fly Zone
After conducting the initial searches, we decided to go more broad. This was to see if we could capture anything we may have missed by going straight to specific searching. According to multiple sources; there has been a no fly zone on and off, between Taiwan and China, for many years. Reasons including political tensions and military exercises from both sides. Both China and Taiwan regularly conduct military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, which is a strategically significant waterway. These exercises vary in frequency and scale and can involve land, sea, and air forces. A no-fly zone stops either side from getting too close to the other while conducting complex military practices.
This provides a good explanation for the odd route that the planes in that region have been taking. There is also the “Median Line” that was first suggested in 1955. Since then, China frequently dismisses the existence of the line and persistently sends planes and ships up to and beyond the line.
The profile shown below belongs to a Data Analysist that focuses on the PLA and Taiwan. He tweets updates on when and how many PLA/PLAN vessels have been close to Taiwan. His profile is a great one-stop shop to get up to date on PLA activity in this area.
Conclusion
It would appear that the “Median Line” and the on and off no-fly zone, are the reasons for commercial flights taking indirect routes between China and Taiwan. Other types of flights do not always follow these rules. The PLA and PLAN have been seen entering Taiwan air and sea space. The image below is from 10/04/2023 which demonstrates the crossing of the “Median Line”.
Sources
CAPA – Centre for Aviation (2015) Clouds loom over cross-strait airline market as Taiwan faces political change. Hong Kong may benefit, CAPA – Centre for Aviation. Available at: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/clouds-loom-over-cross-strait-airline-market-as-taiwan-faces-political-change-hong-kong-may-benefit-248843
Al Jazeera (2023) Taiwan says China’s increased military drills ‘abnormal’, risks accident, Conflict News | Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/23/taiwan-says-chinas-increased-military-drills-abnormal-risks-accident
Micallef, J.V. (2021) Why Taiwan will be at the center of the China-US rivalry, Military.com. Available at: https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2021/01/06/why-taiwan-will-be-center-of-china-us-rivalry.html
Pti (2023) No ‘median line’ in taiwan strait: China asserts after sending 103 warplanes around Taiwan, The Hindu. Available at: https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/no-median-line-in-taiwan-strait-china-asserts-after-sending-103-warplanes-around-taiwan/article67321062.ece
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